Nature

Bayes' theorem

Observing, gathering knowledge and making predictions are the foundations of the scientific process. The accuracy of our predictions depends on the quality of our present knowledge and accuracy of our ...
Ars Technica

Bayes’ theorem: Its triumphs and discontents

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...
Nature

Bayesian Estimation and Maximum Likelihood Methods

Bayesian estimation and maximum likelihood methods represent two central paradigms in modern statistical inference. Bayesian estimation incorporates prior beliefs through Bayes’ theorem, updating ...
Scientific American

What is Bayes's theorem, and how can it be used to assign probabilities to questions such as the existence of God? What scientific value does it have?

Chris Wiggins, an associate professor of applied mathematics at Columbia University, offers this explanation. A patient goes to see a doctor. The doctor performs a test with 99 percent ...
Psychology Today

Two Implications of Bayes’ Theorem

In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined. ~ Nate Silver If the ...
Investopedia

Bayes' Theorem: What It Is, Formula, and Examples

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...